AZ Alkmaar – Juventus
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Medium reliabilityHomeAZ Alkmaar1-1likelyAwayJuventusModel2 · Juventus 53%
Home
AZ Alkmaar
1-1likely
Away
Juventus
Match CenterStatistics only
124%
X23%
253%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.9
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
LWW
Away form
WWD
Most likely score1-110%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.3 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 2.0 for Juventus. Juventus are favourites even away from home (53%).
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Juventus53%
Safer double chanceX276%
Most likely exact score1-110%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- JuventusJuventus attack: scores 27% more than the league average.
- JuventusJuventus defence: concedes 17% less than average.
- AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar defence: concedes 6% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar attack: scores 2% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.3 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 2.0 for Juventus: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.3 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 2.0 for Juventus. Juventus are favourites even away from home (53%).
The model's final prediction
X2 · Juventus avoid defeat76%
League average for this market59% · +16 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 76%
Other strong marketsX2 · Juventus avoid defeat · 76% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 64%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 10%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
10% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.3 - 1.9
total 3.2
Over 2.5
63%
Under 37%
Both teams score
62%
No 38%
Latest games: AZ Alkmaar
W@ Ararat-Armenia0-4
Wvs H. Beer-Sheva2-1
L@ Sunderland1-0
Latest games: Juventus
Dvs Rennes2-2
W@ Celta1-2
Wvs N.E.C.5-0