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Thursday 5 November
17:45Low reliabilityHomeAnderlecht1-1likelyAwaySalzburgModel1 · Anderlecht 41%
The model expects 1.5 goals for Anderlecht and 1.4 for Salzburg. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- SalzburgSalzburg defence: concedes 12% more than average.
- SalzburgSalzburg attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
- AnderlechtAnderlecht attack: scores 8% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- AnderlechtAnderlecht defence: concedes 3% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Anderlecht and 1.4 for Salzburg: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.5 goals for Anderlecht and 1.4 for Salzburg. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Low reliabilityHomeCrystal Palace1-1likelyAwayHoffenheimModel1 · Crystal Palace 39%
The model expects 1.8 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.7 for Hoffenheim. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace attack: scores 21% more than the league average.
- HoffenheimHoffenheim attack: scores 11% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- HoffenheimHoffenheim defence: concedes 3% less than average.
- Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace defence: concedes 3% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.7 for Hoffenheim: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.8 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.7 for Hoffenheim. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Low reliabilityHomeLevski Sofia1-1likelyAwayJagielloniaModel1 · Levski Sofia 37%
The model expects 1.5 goals for Levski Sofia and 1.4 for Jagiellonia. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Levski SofiaLevski Sofia attack: scores 13% less than the league average.
- JagielloniaJagiellonia defence: concedes 12% more than average.
- JagielloniaJagiellonia attack: scores 8% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- Levski SofiaLevski Sofia defence: concedes 2% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Levski Sofia and 1.4 for Jagiellonia: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.5 goals for Levski Sofia and 1.4 for Jagiellonia. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Low reliabilityHomeLillestrøm1-1likelyAwayViktoria PlzenModel2 · Viktoria Plzen 42%
The model expects 1.4 goals for Lillestrøm and 1.6 for Viktoria Plzen. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- LillestrømLillestrøm defence: concedes 21% more than average.
- LillestrømLillestrøm attack: scores 16% less than the league average.
- Viktoria PlzenViktoria Plzen attack: scores 15% less than the league average.
- Viktoria PlzenViktoria Plzen defence: concedes 12% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Lillestrøm and 1.6 for Viktoria Plzen: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.4 goals for Lillestrøm and 1.6 for Viktoria Plzen. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Low reliabilityHomeMilan1-1likelyAwayFerencvárosModel2 · Ferencváros 39%
The model expects 1.6 goals for Milan and 1.7 for Ferencváros. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- FerencvárosFerencváros attack: scores 13% more than the league average.
- MilanMilan defence: concedes 11% less than average.
- MilanMilan attack: scores 9% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- MatchRecent form: Milan LWL, Ferencváros WWW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Milan and 1.7 for Ferencváros: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.6 goals for Milan and 1.7 for Ferencváros. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Medium reliabilityHomeN.E.C.1-1likelyAwayOmoniaModel2 · Omonia 45%
The model expects 1.5 goals for N.E.C. and 1.9 for Omonia. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- N.E.C.N.E.C. defence: concedes 17% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- OmoniaOmonia defence: concedes 1% more than average.
- OmoniaOmonia attack: scores 1% less than the league average.
- MatchRecent form: N.E.C. LDW, Omonia WWL (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for N.E.C. and 1.9 for Omonia: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.5 goals for N.E.C. and 1.9 for Omonia. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Medium reliabilityHomeReal Sociedad1-1likelyAwayLyonModel1 · Real Sociedad 48%
The model expects 1.9 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.5 for Lyon. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Real SociedadReal Sociedad attack: scores 31% more than the league average.
- Real SociedadReal Sociedad defence: concedes 13% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- LyonLyon attack: scores 5% more than the league average.
- LyonLyon defence: concedes 2% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.5 for Lyon: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.9 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.5 for Lyon. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Low reliabilityHomeRennes1-1likelyAwayOlympiacosModel2 · Olympiacos 37%
The model expects 1.4 goals for Rennes and 1.4 for Olympiacos. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- OlympiacosOlympiacos defence: concedes 11% less than average.
- OlympiacosOlympiacos attack: scores 8% less than the league average.
- RennesRennes attack: scores 6% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- RennesRennes defence: concedes 5% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Rennes and 1.4 for Olympiacos: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.4 goals for Rennes and 1.4 for Olympiacos. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45High reliabilityHomeSparta Praha1-2likelyAwayBournemouthModel2 · Bournemouth 62%
The model expects 1.0 goals for Sparta Praha and 2.1 for Bournemouth. Bournemouth are favourites even away from home (62%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- BournemouthBournemouth attack: scores 30% more than the league average.
- BournemouthBournemouth defence: concedes 27% less than average.
- Sparta PrahaSparta Praha attack: scores 7% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- MatchRecent form: Sparta Praha WDL, Bournemouth WWW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.0 goals for Sparta Praha and 2.1 for Bournemouth: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.0 goals for Sparta Praha and 2.1 for Bournemouth. Bournemouth are favourites even away from home (62%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Medium reliabilityHomeAZ Alkmaar1-1likelyAwayJuventusModel2 · Juventus 53%
The model expects 1.3 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 2.0 for Juventus. Juventus are favourites even away from home (53%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- JuventusJuventus attack: scores 27% more than the league average.
- JuventusJuventus defence: concedes 17% less than average.
- AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar defence: concedes 6% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar attack: scores 2% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.3 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 2.0 for Juventus: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.3 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 2.0 for Juventus. Juventus are favourites even away from home (53%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00High reliabilityHomeBenfica2-1likelyAwayLech PoznanModel1 · Benfica 59%
The model expects 2.2 goals for Benfica and 1.2 for Lech Poznan. Benfica start as favourites (59%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- BenficaBenfica attack: scores 21% more than the league average.
- Lech PoznanLech Poznan defence: concedes 17% more than average.
- Lech PoznanLech Poznan attack: scores 17% less than the league average.
- BenficaBenfica defence: concedes 7% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.2 goals for Benfica and 1.2 for Lech Poznan: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.2 goals for Benfica and 1.2 for Lech Poznan. Benfica start as favourites (59%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Low reliabilityHomeCelta1-1likelyAwayUnion SGModel2 · Union SG 43%
The model expects 1.3 goals for Celta and 1.5 for Union SG. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- CeltaCelta defence: concedes 15% less than average.
- Union SGUnion SG defence: concedes 12% less than average.
- Union SGUnion SG attack: scores 11% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- CeltaCelta attack: scores 2% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.3 goals for Celta and 1.5 for Union SG: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.3 goals for Celta and 1.5 for Union SG. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00High reliabilityHomeCeltic1-2likelyAwayBesiktasModel2 · Besiktas 57%
The model expects 1.4 goals for Celtic and 2.2 for Besiktas. Besiktas are favourites even away from home (57%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- CelticCeltic defence: concedes 19% more than average.
- BesiktasBesiktas attack: scores 16% more than the league average.
- CelticCeltic attack: scores 10% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- BesiktasBesiktas defence: concedes 3% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Celtic and 2.2 for Besiktas: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.4 goals for Celtic and 2.2 for Besiktas. Besiktas are favourites even away from home (57%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Medium reliabilityHomeH. Beer-Sheva1-1likelyAwayOFI CreteModel2 · OFI Crete 47%
The model expects 1.2 goals for H. Beer-Sheva and 1.6 for OFI Crete. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- H. Beer-ShevaH. Beer-Sheva attack: scores 20% less than the league average.
- H. Beer-ShevaH. Beer-Sheva defence: concedes 11% more than average.
- OFI CreteOFI Crete attack: scores 10% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- OFI CreteOFI Crete defence: concedes 2% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.2 goals for H. Beer-Sheva and 1.6 for OFI Crete: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.2 goals for H. Beer-Sheva and 1.6 for OFI Crete. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00High reliabilityHomeLeverkusen1-1likelyAwayMarseilleModel1 · Leverkusen 60%
The model expects 2.0 goals for Leverkusen and 1.0 for Marseille. Leverkusen start as favourites (60%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- LeverkusenLeverkusen defence: concedes 27% less than average.
- LeverkusenLeverkusen attack: scores 25% more than the league average.
- MarseilleMarseille attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- MarseilleMarseille defence: concedes 3% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.0 goals for Leverkusen and 1.0 for Marseille: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.0 goals for Leverkusen and 1.0 for Marseille. Leverkusen start as favourites (60%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Low reliabilityHomeSturm Graz1-1likelyAwayCeljeModel1 · Sturm Graz 39%
The model expects 1.4 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.3 for Celje. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Sturm GrazSturm Graz attack: scores 18% less than the league average.
- CeljeCelje attack: scores 15% less than the league average.
- CeljeCelje defence: concedes 13% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- Sturm GrazSturm Graz defence: concedes 5% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.3 for Celje: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.4 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.3 for Celje. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Medium reliabilityHomeSunderland1-1likelyAwayGNK DinamoModel1 · Sunderland 47%
The model expects 1.6 goals for Sunderland and 1.2 for GNK Dinamo. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- SunderlandSunderland defence: concedes 18% less than average.
- GNK DinamoGNK Dinamo attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- GNK DinamoGNK Dinamo defence: concedes 4% more than average.
- MatchRecent form: Sunderland WWD, GNK Dinamo DWL (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Sunderland and 1.2 for GNK Dinamo: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.6 goals for Sunderland and 1.2 for GNK Dinamo. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Low reliabilityHomeTorreense1-1likelyAwayArarat-ArmeniaModel1 · Torreense 45%
The model expects 1.8 goals for Torreense and 1.5 for Ararat-Armenia. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia defence: concedes 32% more than average.
- Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia attack: scores 17% less than the league average.
- TorreenseTorreense defence: concedes 15% more than average.
- TorreenseTorreense attack: scores 8% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for Torreense and 1.5 for Ararat-Armenia: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.8 goals for Torreense and 1.5 for Ararat-Armenia. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Next rounds
Statistical model only: news on injuries and suspensions arrives in the 48 hours before each match. Probabilities change after every round.
Matchday 5
Matchday 6
Already played
Last 18 predicted matches: outcome right 10 times out of 18.