Celta – Union SG
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Low reliabilityHomeCelta1-1likelyAwayUnion SGModel2 · Union SG 43%
Home
Celta
1-1likely
Away
Union SG
Match CenterStatistics only
131%
X26%
243%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LLW
Away form
WDW
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.3 goals for Celta and 1.5 for Union SG. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Union SG43%
Safer double chanceX269%
Most likely exact score1-112%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- CeltaCelta defence: concedes 15% less than average.
- Union SGUnion SG defence: concedes 12% less than average.
- Union SGUnion SG attack: scores 11% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- CeltaCelta attack: scores 2% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.3 goals for Celta and 1.5 for Union SG: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.3 goals for Celta and 1.5 for Union SG. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
X2 · Union SG avoid defeat69%
League average for this market59% · +10 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 69%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 69% · X2 · Union SG avoid defeat · 69%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
12% · then 1-2, 0-1
Expected goals
1.3 - 1.5
total 2.8
Over 2.5
53%
Under 47%
Both teams score
57%
No 43%
Latest games: Celta
W@ Celtic1-2
Lvs Juventus1-2
L@ Omonia1-0
Latest games: Union SG
Wvs H. Beer-Sheva4-0
Dvs Real Sociedad1-1
W@ Viktoria Plzen0-3