Benfica – Lech Poznan
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00High reliabilityHomeBenfica2-1likelyAwayLech PoznanModel1 · Benfica 59%
Home
Benfica
2-1likely
Away
Lech Poznan
Match CenterStatistics only
159%
X21%
220%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.2
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WWW
Away form
LLD
Most likely score2-110%
Why this outcome
The model expects 2.2 goals for Benfica and 1.2 for Lech Poznan. Benfica start as favourites (59%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Benfica59%
Safer double chance1X80%
Most likely exact score2-110%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- BenficaBenfica attack: scores 21% more than the league average.
- Lech PoznanLech Poznan defence: concedes 17% more than average.
- Lech PoznanLech Poznan attack: scores 17% less than the league average.
- BenficaBenfica defence: concedes 7% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.2 goals for Benfica and 1.2 for Lech Poznan: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 2.2 goals for Benfica and 1.2 for Lech Poznan. Benfica start as favourites (59%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
1X + Over 1.570%
League average for this market44% · +25 points
Safer alternative1X · 80%
Other strong markets1X · Benfica avoid defeat · 80% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 70%
Most likely exact score2-1 · 10%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
2-1
10% · then 1-1, 2-0
Expected goals
2.2 - 1.2
total 3.4
Over 2.5
66%
Under 34%
Both teams score
63%
No 38%
Latest games: Benfica
W@ Omonia1-4
Wvs Celtic4-1
W@ Milan0-2
Latest games: Lech Poznan
Dvs Sunderland1-1
Lvs Leverkusen0-4
L@ Crystal Palace4-0