Leverkusen – Marseille
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00High reliabilityHomeLeverkusen1-1likelyAwayMarseilleModel1 · Leverkusen 60%
Home
Leverkusen
1-1likely
Away
Marseille
Match CenterStatistics only
160%
X22%
218%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WWW
Away form
LLL
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome
The model expects 2.0 goals for Leverkusen and 1.0 for Marseille. Leverkusen start as favourites (60%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Leverkusen60%
Safer double chance1X82%
Most likely exact score1-111%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- LeverkusenLeverkusen defence: concedes 27% less than average.
- LeverkusenLeverkusen attack: scores 25% more than the league average.
- MarseilleMarseille attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- MarseilleMarseille defence: concedes 3% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.0 goals for Leverkusen and 1.0 for Marseille: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 2.0 goals for Leverkusen and 1.0 for Marseille. Leverkusen start as favourites (60%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
1X · Leverkusen avoid defeat82%
League average for this market57% · +25 points
Safer alternative1X · 82%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 81% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
11% · then 2-1, 2-0
Expected goals
2.0 - 1.0
total 3.0
Over 2.5
58%
Under 42%
Both teams score
55%
No 45%
Latest games: Leverkusen
W@ OFI Crete0-2
W@ Lech Poznan0-4
Wvs Celje2-0
Latest games: Marseille
L@ Sturm Graz1-0
Lvs Olympiacos0-1
L@ Besiktas4-1