Sturm Graz – Celje
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Low reliabilityHomeSturm Graz1-1likelyAwayCeljeModel1 · Sturm Graz 39%
Home
Sturm Graz
1-1likely
Away
Celje
Match CenterStatistics only
139%
X27%
234%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.3
Reliabilitylow
Home form
DLW
Away form
LLD
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.4 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.3 for Celje. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Sturm Graz39%
Safer double chance1X66%
Most likely exact score1-113%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Sturm GrazSturm Graz attack: scores 18% less than the league average.
- CeljeCelje attack: scores 15% less than the league average.
- CeljeCelje defence: concedes 13% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- Sturm GrazSturm Graz defence: concedes 5% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.3 for Celje: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.4 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.3 for Celje. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals51%
League average for this market31% · +19 points
Safer alternative1X · 66%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 73% · 1X · Sturm Graz avoid defeat · 66%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
13% · then 1-0, 2-1
Expected goals
1.4 - 1.3
total 2.6
Over 2.5
49%
Under 51%
Both teams score
54%
No 46%
Latest games: Sturm Graz
Wvs Marseille1-0
L@ Bournemouth3-0
Dvs Rennes0-0
Latest games: Celje
Dvs Salzburg2-2
Lvs Omonia0-3
L@ Leverkusen2-0