Real Sociedad – Lyon
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Medium reliabilityHomeReal Sociedad1-1likelyAwayLyonModel1 · Real Sociedad 48%
Home
Real Sociedad
1-1likely
Away
Lyon
Match CenterStatistics only
148%
X23%
229%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.5
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
LDW
Away form
WWL
Most likely score1-110%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.9 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.5 for Lyon. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Real Sociedad48%
Safer double chance1X71%
Most likely exact score1-110%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Real SociedadReal Sociedad attack: scores 31% more than the league average.
- Real SociedadReal Sociedad defence: concedes 13% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- LyonLyon attack: scores 5% more than the league average.
- LyonLyon defence: concedes 2% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.5 for Lyon: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.9 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.5 for Lyon. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
1X + Over 1.561%
League average for this market44% · +17 points
Safer alternative1X · 71%
Other strong markets1X · Real Sociedad avoid defeat · 71% · Both teams score · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 10%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
10% · then 2-1, 1-2
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.5
total 3.4
Over 2.5
66%
Under 34%
Both teams score
67%
No 33%
Latest games: Real Sociedad
W@ Lillestrøm0-6
D@ Union SG1-1
Lvs Bournemouth1-2
Latest games: Lyon
L@ Hoffenheim3-0
Wvs Crystal Palace3-2
W@ Anderlecht1-2