Sparta Praha – Bournemouth
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45High reliabilityHomeSparta Praha1-2likelyAwayBournemouthModel2 · Bournemouth 62%
Home
Sparta Praha
1-2likely
Away
Bournemouth
Match CenterStatistics only
117%
X21%
262%
Expected goals1.0 – 2.1
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WDL
Away form
WWW
Most likely score1-210%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.0 goals for Sparta Praha and 2.1 for Bournemouth. Bournemouth are favourites even away from home (62%).
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Bournemouth62%
Safer double chanceX283%
Most likely exact score1-210%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- BournemouthBournemouth attack: scores 30% more than the league average.
- BournemouthBournemouth defence: concedes 27% less than average.
- Sparta PrahaSparta Praha attack: scores 7% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- MatchRecent form: Sparta Praha WDL, Bournemouth WWW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.0 goals for Sparta Praha and 2.1 for Bournemouth: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.0 goals for Sparta Praha and 2.1 for Bournemouth. Bournemouth are favourites even away from home (62%).
The model's final prediction
X2 · Bournemouth avoid defeat83%
League average for this market59% · +24 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 83%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 83% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 70%
Most likely exact score1-2 · 10%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-2
10% · then 1-1, 0-2
Expected goals
1.0 - 2.1
total 3.1
Over 2.5
61%
Under 39%
Both teams score
57%
No 43%
Latest games: Sparta Praha
L@ Olympiacos1-0
Dvs Lillestrøm1-1
W@ Ararat-Armenia1-4
Latest games: Bournemouth
Wvs Milan3-0
Wvs Sturm Graz3-0
W@ Real Sociedad1-2