Milan – Ferencváros
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Low reliabilityHomeMilan1-1likelyAwayFerencvárosModel2 · Ferencváros 39%
Home
Milan
1-1likely
Away
Ferencváros
Match CenterStatistics only
137%
X24%
239%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LWL
Away form
WWW
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.6 goals for Milan and 1.7 for Ferencváros. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Ferencváros39%
Safer double chanceX263%
Most likely exact score1-111%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- FerencvárosFerencváros attack: scores 13% more than the league average.
- MilanMilan defence: concedes 11% less than average.
- MilanMilan attack: scores 9% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
- MatchRecent form: Milan LWL, Ferencváros WWW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Milan and 1.7 for Ferencváros: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.6 goals for Milan and 1.7 for Ferencváros. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
Both teams score65%
League average for this market52% · +13 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 63%
Other strong marketsBoth teams score · 65% · X2 · Ferencváros avoid defeat · 63%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 2-1
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.6
total 3.2
Over 2.5
63%
Under 37%
Both teams score
65%
No 35%
Latest games: Milan
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W@ Salzburg0-4
Lvs Benfica0-2
Latest games: Ferencváros
Wvs Torreense4-1
Wvs Viktoria Plzen2-1
W@ Celtic1-3