Lillestrøm – Viktoria Plzen
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Low reliabilityHomeLillestrøm1-1likelyAwayViktoria PlzenModel2 · Viktoria Plzen 42%
Home
Lillestrøm
1-1likely
Away
Viktoria Plzen
Match CenterStatistics only
132%
X25%
242%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LDL
Away form
LLL
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.4 goals for Lillestrøm and 1.6 for Viktoria Plzen. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Viktoria Plzen42%
Safer double chanceX268%
Most likely exact score1-112%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- LillestrømLillestrøm defence: concedes 21% more than average.
- LillestrømLillestrøm attack: scores 16% less than the league average.
- Viktoria PlzenViktoria Plzen attack: scores 15% less than the league average.
- Viktoria PlzenViktoria Plzen defence: concedes 12% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% less than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Lillestrøm and 1.6 for Viktoria Plzen: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.4 goals for Lillestrøm and 1.6 for Viktoria Plzen. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
Both teams score60%
League average for this market52% · +9 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 68%
Other strong marketsX2 · Viktoria Plzen avoid defeat · 68% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
12% · then 1-2, 2-1
Expected goals
1.4 - 1.6
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
60%
No 40%
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